David Iben put it well when he said, ‘Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.’ So it seems the smart money knows that debt – which is usually involved in bankruptcies – is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We can see that Stingray Group Inc. (TSE:RAY.A) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
How Much Debt Does Stingray Group Carry?
As you can see below, Stingray Group had CA$335.4m of debt at March 2021, down from CA$363.8m a year prior. On the flip side, it has CA$9.04m in cash leading to net debt of about CA$326.4m.
A Look At Stingray Group’s Liabilities
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Stingray Group had liabilities of CA$120.5m due within 12 months and liabilities of CA$427.7m due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had CA$9.04m in cash and CA$59.8m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CA$479.3m.
This is a mountain of leverage relative to its market capitalization of CA$501.9m. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.
In order to size up a company’s debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Stingray Group has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 3.4 and its EBIT covered its interest expense 3.8 times. Taken together this implies that, while we wouldn’t want to see debt levels rise, we think it can handle its current leverage. Another concern for investors might be that Stingray Group’s EBIT fell 10% in the last year. If things keep going like that, handling the debt will about as easy as bundling an angry house cat into its travel box. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Stingray Group’s ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So it’s worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the last three years, Stingray Group actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT. There’s nothing better than incoming cash when it comes to staying in your lenders’ good graces.
Stingray Group’s EBIT growth rate and level of total liabilities definitely weigh on it, in our esteem. But the good news is it seems to be able to convert EBIT to free cash flow with ease. When we consider all the factors discussed, it seems to us that Stingray Group is taking some risks with its use of debt. So while that leverage does boost returns on equity, we wouldn’t really want to see it increase from here. There’s no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Case in point: We’ve spotted 2 warning signs for Stingray Group you should be aware of.
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don’t even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
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